WDIO31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (MONTHA) WARNING 
NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.3N 84.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 612 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 03B (MONTHA) WITH CONTINUED POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE WEST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS HIGH (25-30 KTS) CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO APPEAR LESS ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 270711Z AMSR2 PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AMSR2 PASS AND AGENCY FIXES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 270711Z AMSR2 PASS

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 270755Z
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 270900Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 271100Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 41 KTS AT 270755Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 38 KTS AT 271130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC MONTHA WILL REMAIN TRANSITING NORTHWESTWARD
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM HAS LIKELY REACHED
ITS PEAK AND WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 45 KT STRENGTH UNTIL AFTER TAU
24. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND FEATURES
WILL START TO WEAKEN TC MONTHA WITH A STEEPER WEAKENING TREND
EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED SHEAR AND
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE TERRAIN. TC MONTHA WILL FULLY DISSIPATE
OVER LAND BY TAU 48.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A CROSS TRACK SPREAD UNDER 65 NM THROUGH TAU 36. LANDFALL IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 SOUTH OF KAKINADA, INDIA. THE
JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC
MONTHA WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 45 KT INTENSITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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