WDIO31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (MONTHA) WARNING NR 
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.5N 85.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 631 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) VISIBLE
BETWEEN DISORGANIZED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE PERSISTENT
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE TILTED TO THE WEST BY STRONG EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS CIRRUS FILAMENTS
EXPANDING BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD DESPITE THE OTHERWISE
UNFAVORABLE FEATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED LLCC IDENTIFIED IN ANIMATED
MSI AND AN EARLIER 272231Z F-18 SSMIS 91HBT 262231. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 272022Z GCOM W-1 AMSR2 WIND SPEED DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 261958Z
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 262100Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 262000Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 35 KTS AT 262231Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 42 KTS AT 262230Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B WILL GRADUALLY TRACK
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. WHILE ALONG THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE
LANDFALL ON THE COASTAL STATE OF TELUGU BETWEEN TAU 36-48. THE
STRUCTURE OF THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN BROAD FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO OVERCOME UNFAVORABLY HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ABOVE 20KTS. OTHER FEATURES, SUCH AS OUTFLOW
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE. TC 03B IS
ANTICIPATED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45KTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AND MAINTAIN UNTIL TAU 24. PRIOR TO LANDFALL, TC 03B WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO
DISSIPATION AFTER LANDFALL.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THAT TC 03B WILL TAKE A NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BY LANDFALL, THERE IS A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 172NM. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
THROUGH LANDFALL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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