WDIO31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR 
002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.3N 85.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 699 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST BY STRONG 25-30KT EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW FEEDING INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL JET TO THE NORTH, AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW INTO STRAIGHT-LINE FLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC IN ANIMATED EIR AND A
261557Z METOP-C ASCAT WIND VECTOR IMAGE REVEALING AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SAME ASCAT IMAGE INDICATING AN ASYMMETRIC
WIND FIELD WITH A MAXIMUM OF 40KTS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC AND
WEAKER WINDS TO THE NORTH.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 261500Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 32 KTS AT 261700Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 36 KTS AT 261700Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B WILL ROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CURVING
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THE TRACK WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 24 TO A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE SYSTEM IS
ANTICIPATED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COASTAL STATE OF TELUGU BEFORE
MOVING INLAND. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN HIGH ABOVE 20 KTS, HOWEVER, THE
LARGE STRUCTURE OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THE
NEGATIVE INFLUENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OUTFLOW WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 03B
WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45KTS BY TAU 24. JUST PRIOR TO
LANDFALL AT TAU 48, TC 03B WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 40KTS DUE TO
TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION WITH THE LARGE SYSTEM, AND DISSIPATE INLAND
BY TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THAT TC 03B WILL TRACK EITHER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT LANDFALL IS 200NM. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INDICATES SLIGHTLY STRONGER INTENSIFICATION TO 50KTS, HOWEVER THAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REALISTIC GIVEN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT WITH
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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