WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 
014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 28.7N 131.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 237 NM NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION
REESTABLISHING A WRAP AROUND THE CENTER. WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C)
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (NAKRI) HAS BEEN ABLE TO RECONSOLIDATE AS
EVIDENCED BY A COOLING TREND (-78 C TO -80 C) AND INCREASED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. DESPITE TRACKING INTO AN AREA OF RELATIVELY
DRY AIR THE CORE REMAINS MOIST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC
IDENTIFIED IN EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 110907Z RCM-3 SAR PASS, AS WELL AS THE 
AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 110907Z RCM-3 SAR

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 111300Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 42 KTS AT 111300Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 41 KTS AT 111300Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS NAKRI CONTINUES ON ITS NORTHEASTWARDS
TRACK, NOW BEING DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48 AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28 C TO 29 C) AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS). AFTERWARDS,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOLING SEA TEMPERATURES (26-27 C), 
AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE JET WILL HELP TS NAKRI ALONG ITS 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TS NAKRI IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE THE 
ETT BY TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, AS WITNESSED BY A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF UNDER 40 NM
AT TAU 48. THEREFORE, THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE 
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, ALLOWING FOR ONLY MINOR UNCERTAINTY 
DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTH WITH WHICH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STEER 
THE SYSTEM ALONG ITS PERIPHERY. FOR THIS REASON, THE JTWC TRACK IS 
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOLLOWING TAU 72. INTENSITY GUIDANCE 
SPREAD HAS DECREASED TO 30 KTS, WITH THE MOST CONSERVATIVE ASSESSMENT 
FROM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS, WHILE MOST AGGRESSIVE COAMPS-TS 
AND DETERMINISTIC GFS REACH 90-95 KTS. THE JTWC FORECAST REFLECTS AN 
INTENSITY MAXIMUM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN HAFS-A GUIDANCE, THOUGH IT 
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN REGARD TO THE TIMELINE 
OF INTENSIFICATION. THEREFORE, THE FORECASTED INTENSITY IS PLACED 
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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