WDPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 
008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.7N 132.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 263 NM EAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
BANDS TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER, AND ASSOCIATED
PERSISTENT CONVECTION DISPLACED CONSIDERABLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. 
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W HAS GAINED WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND TRACKED 
INTO SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THOUGH 
IT IS STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY DUE TO THE DRY AIR 
STIFLING DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS 
IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 092149Z
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 100010Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 37 KTS AT 100010Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 26 KTS AT 092148Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 27 KTS AT 100040Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 29W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STEERING
RIDGE. AS IT RECURVES TO THE NORTHEAST, BEGINNING TO RECURVE AROUND
TAU 12 AND COMPLETING PRIOR TO TAU 36, IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW WHILE
THE CORE MOISTENS AND CONSOLIDATES, INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY. AFTER
RECURVING, 29W WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
TAU 48, THEN TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS 29W TRACKS FURTHER NORTH, IT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES -- BEGINNING AROUND TAU 72
-- LEADING TO INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION. 29W IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT TAU 72, BEFORE
INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERLIES WEAKENS THE STORM. 29W WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NO LATER THAN TAU 96, WITH ETT
COMPLETE BY TAU 120. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 29W WILL RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN TAUS
12-36; HOWEVER, THERE IS SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON HOW TIGHT OF A TURN
29W WILL MAKE. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES WEST OF THE BULK OF
CONSENSUS MODEL MEMBERS WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS UNCERTAIN IN THE INTENSITY AT WHICH 29W WILL
PEAK, BUT MOST MODELS AGREE ON THE PEAK OCCURRING BETWEEN TAUS
60-84. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH
OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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