WDPN32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (HALONG) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.6N 139.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 157 NM NORTHWEST OF IWO TO
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION REBUILDING AROUND A CLOUD-FILLED EYE FEATURE. DRY AIR
BOUNDS THE CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE TO THE WEST. THE WIDE AND SYMMETRIC
EYE IS HIGHLIGHTED ON A LATER 061935Z GPM GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED EYE FEATURE IDENTIFIED IN ANIMATED EIR AND THE
LATER MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 71 KTS AT 061607Z
   CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 061730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 65 KTS AT 061730Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 78 KTS AT 061841Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 79 KTS AT 061830Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 28W WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, CROSSING THE
RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN TAU 24-36. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG A
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BEGINS AT TAU 72 AND COMPLETES BY TAU 96. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A PEAK OF
125KTS. AFTER TAU 48, TY 28W WILL TRACK OVER A COOL EDDY SOUTH OF
HONSHU, CUTTING OFF THE HEAT SOURCE FROM THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE UNFAVORABLY AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE SUBTROPICAL JET, AND WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT TY 28W WILL CURVE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 96 IS
90NM. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALSO STRONGLY SIGNALS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE FIRST 36-48 HOURS, WITH RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AIDS INDICATING PEAK INTENSITIES BETWEEN 95-135KTS.
NOTABLY, THE OCEAN-COUPLED MODELS HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC REFLECT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS WELL, WHILE GFS LIES BELOW THE PEAK MEAN
AT 85KTS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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