WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (MATMO) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.2N 111.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 192 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 36 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A LARGE, CLOUD-FILLED EYE. ANIMATED RADAR 
IMAGERY REVEALS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, WITH A ROUND 
WELL-DEFINED EYE. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING JUST NORTHEAST OF HAINAN 
ISLAND, WITH HAIKOU MEILAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REPORTING 
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 27 KNOTS GUSTING TO 43 KNOTS. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND RADAR 
IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, 
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY ESTIMATES AND A 042300Z DPRINT 
ESTIMATE OF 92 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OTHER 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 78 KTS AT 041828Z
   CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 050000Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 81 KTS AT 050000Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 82 KTS AT 032053Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 88 KTS AT 050000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 27W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TY 27W WILL WEAKEN 
SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA NEAR TAU 12. AFTER 
TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CHINA WITH RAPID 
WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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