WDPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (MATMO) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.0N 114.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 198 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TYPHOON
27W (MATMO) WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED APPEARANCE COMPARED TO 6
HOURS AGO. A LARGE (40 NM) EYE HAS FORMED AND COLD CLOUD TOPS NOW
ENCIRCLE THE ENTIRE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 041024Z
WSFM 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION PLACED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE VORTEX. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 27W
CONTINUES TO BE WITHIN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND
EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED WSFM IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
CIMSS ADT AND AIDT ESTIMATES ARE CURRENTLY FAR TOO LOW DUE TO AN
INCORRECT SCENE TYPE BEING USED.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS D-MINT: 64 KTS AT 040820Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 64 KTS AT 041200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 27W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN INITIAL LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ALONG THE 
LEIZHOU PENINSULA NEAR TAU 18. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST
TO VERY BRIEFLY EMERGE WITHIN THE GULF OF TONKIN BEFORE MAKING A
SECOND LANDFALL EAST OF THE VIETNAM-CHINA BORDER AROUND TAU 24.
REGARDING INTENSITY, 27W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 18, LAND INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN CHINA
WILL DETERIORATE THE VORTEX. AFTER MAKING ITS FINAL LANDFALL, 27W
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND THE REMNANT VORTEX WILL LIKELY FULLY
DISSIPATE NO LATER THAN TAU 72, NORTH OF VIETNAM AND LAOS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST WITH A MERE 62 NM
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS
DEPICTING INTENSIFICATION THROUGH LANDFALL AND WEAKENING
THEREAFTER. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 12, AND THEN IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS
AFTERWARD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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