WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (MATMO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.4N 122.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 142 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING FULLY AROUND A DEVELOPING CENTER FEATURE AS THE
SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE EAST COAST OF LUZON. 27W HAS
INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND PASSAGE OVER WARM
WATER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 
MULTI-AGENCY FIXES, 022154Z WSF-M 37 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, 
AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE PHILIPPINES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 
KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF AGENCY 
DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 022030Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 47 KTS AT 022030Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 74 KTS AT 030030Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 27W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE CONTINUOUS
STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. STORM
STRUCTURE WILL BE DISRUPTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL LUZON IN THE NEAR TERM, WEAKENING THE SYSTEM
BEFORE IT REEMERGES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. HOWEVER, THE DEGREE
OF WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY MUTED AS THE CIRCULATION
IS LARGE ENOUGH FOR THE OUTER PERIPHERIES TO CONTINUE DRAWING
ENERGY FROM THE WARM WATER SURROUNDING LUZON AND IS MOVING QUICKLY
ENOUGH FOR THE CENTER TO REEMERGE OVER WATER BEFORE LAND
INTERACTION CAN DISSIPATE THE SIGNIFICANT ENERGY. AFTER 27W REEMERGES 
OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY TAU 12, 
PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A 
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN ARE EXPECTED TO FUEL 
STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48. THEREAFTER, LAND INTERACTION 
WILL DRIVE GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING BOTH THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE ONLY
NOTEWORTHY OUTLIER ON THIS CYCLE IS THE GFS INTENSITY FORECAST,
WHICH DEPICTS MORE WEAKENING OVER LUZON AND A CONSEQUENTLY SLIGHTLY
LOWER INTENSITY OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA THAN THE OTHER CONSENSUS 
MODELS PREDICT.   GIVEN THE DEPENDENCE OF THE INTENSITY TREND ON THE 
DEGREE OF NEAR-TERM WEAKENING OVER LAND AND SUBSEQUENT 
REORGANIZATION OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THERE IS SOME INHERENT 
UNCERTAINTY IN THE 12 TO 72 HOUR INTENSITY FORECAST. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE PREVIOUS
JTWC FORECAST AND RESPECTIVE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUSES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: HIGH//
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