WDPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (MATMO) WARNING NR 
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.0N 123.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 177 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A 021546Z OCEANSAT-3 PASS AND RECENT
RADAR DATA FROM THE PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM HAS STEADILY
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE FIXES
FROM PGTW, KNES, RJTD, AND DEMS AS WELL AS ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES LISTED
BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 56 KTS AT 021725Z
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 021730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 39 KTS AT 021730Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 54 KTS AT 021725Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 52 KTS AT 021900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 27W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE CONTINUOUS
STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. NEAR-TERM
INTENSIFICATION TO A 6O TO 65 KT PEAK, FUELED BY FAVORABLE
OCEAN AND UPPER-AIR CONDITIONS, IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL
ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON IN A FEW HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE RUGGED TERRAIN BEFORE
RE-EMERGING IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) AFTER TAU 12. PASSAGE OVER
WARM WATER, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN ARE EXPECTED TO FUEL STEADY
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE SCS THROUGH TAU 48. THEREAFTER, LAND
INTERACTION WILL DRIVE GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ACROSS THE BOARD REGARDING BOTH THE FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY, WITH NO NOTEWORTHY OUTLIERS. THE ELEMENTS OF
REINTENSIFICATION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ARE INHERENTLY
UNCERTAIN, WITH DEPENDENCE ON ANTICIPATED NEAR-TERM WEAKENING
OVER LAND AND THE DEGREE OF SUBSEQUENT REORGANIZATION OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA, LENDING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE CONSISTENT
WITH BOTH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST AND RESPECTIVE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUSES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: HIGH//
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