WDPN33 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 041//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 38.0N 167.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1071 NM NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 30 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 44 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED
EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH TYPHOON (TY) 25W (NEOGURI). THE SYSTEM
CAN BE OBSERVED TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AT AN IMPRESSIVE 30 KTS
SPEED OVER WATER, WHILE ENTERING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENVIRONMENT.
WHILE THE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS IN PLACE, DRY AIR IS
BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN THE VORTEX FROM THE WEST. SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS ALSO BEGINNING TO TILT THE VERTICAL
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
CONDITIONS SHIFTING TOWARD UNFAVORABLE, WITH RAPIDLY COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 24-25 C. THE
INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN DETERMINED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE IRREGULAR, BUT DISTINCT EYE FEATURE, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 105 KTS IS ASSIGNED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS WELL, UTILIZING A
COMBINATION OF DVORAK ESTIMATES, OBJECTIVE AIDS LISTED BELOW, AS
WELL AS OUTPUT FROM A 280703Z SEN-1 SAR AND A 280652Z RCM-1 SAR
PASSES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 280703Z SEN-1 SAR AND A 280652Z RCM-1
SAR PASSES 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   PHFO: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 109 KTS AT 281130Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 105 KTS AT 281130Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 104 KTS AT 281200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 24-25 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
DEEP-LAYER STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. AS THE SYSTEM HAS
ROUNDED THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE AND ENTERED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, IT
IS ANTICIPATED TO COMPLETE ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. RAPIDLY DECLINING SSTS AND
INCREASING VWS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN DECAPITATION OF THE SYSTEM AND
A SHALLOWING OF ITS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TY NEOGURI HAS REACHED
ITS SHORT-LIVED INTENSITY PEAK AROUND 115-120 KTS DURING THE LAST 6
HOURS AND IS NOW FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY DETERIORATING. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK AND INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AND INTENSITY IS CLOSELY
MATCHING THE HAFS-A SOLUTION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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