WDPN33 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 040//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 35.8N 164.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 893 NM NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 44 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A NEARLY
PERFECTLY ROUND EYE FEATURE OF TYPHOON (TY) 25W (NEOGURI) AS IT IS
ACCELERATING ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. DESPITE ITS CURRENT MID-
LATITUDE POSITION, THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AT AN 
IMPRESSIVE RATE OF 40 KTS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT, IT NOW 
FEATURES A NEARLY SYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE CANOPY, SURROUNDING THE 20 
NM WIDE EYE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, THE LAST 
MOMENTS OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDE BORDERLINE (26-27 
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THESE FACTORS ARE OFFSET HOWEVER 
BY SIGNIFICANTLY AND RAPIDLY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT 20-25 KTS, AS WELL AS DRY AIR PRESSING OVER THE 
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED 
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EASILY IDENTIFIABLE EYE FEATURE, 
WHILE THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE 
ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 102 KTS AT 280200Z
   CIMSS ADT: 109 KTS AT 280530Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 108 KTS AT 280530Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 97 KTS AT 280200Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 102 KTS AT 280700Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 25W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING,
WHILE TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR TO
THE EAST. AS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE AXIS OF THE
RIDGE, IT IS EXPECTED TO SOON BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT). RAPIDLY COOLING SSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DECAPITATION AND QUICK SHALLOWING OF THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. UNTIL THEN, TY NEOGURI STILL
HAS A FEW HOURS TO REACH A SHORT-LIVED PEAK SLIGHTLY BEYOND
CURRENTLY ASSESSED 110 KTS. AFTER THAT, ONSET OF AFOREMENTIONED
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, AMPLIFIED BY SIGNIFICANT DRY
AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST WILL ALL RESULT IN RAPID DETERIORATION
OF TY 25W, PAIRED WITH SIMULTANEOUS AND QUICK COMPLETION OF THE ETT
BY TAU 24.

MODEL DISCUSSION: BOTH NUMERICAL TRACK AND INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST. TRACK
ASSESSMENT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHILE
INTENSITY PREDICTION IS PLACED CLOSE TO THAT OF HAFS-A, WHICH IS ON
THE HIGHER END OF THE CURRENT MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SPREAD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN