WDPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.8N 117.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 221 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
EXPANSION AND DEEPENING OF TYPHOON 26W (BUALOI) AS IT MOVES INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. EXCELLENT OUTFLOW TO THE EQUATORWARD SIDE IS
EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WHILE THERE IS SUBTLE
PRESSURE SHOWING OVER THE POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE. DESPITE THE MILD
SUPPRESSION OF OUTFLOW OVER THE POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE, 26W EXISTS IN
AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE
AND IS SET UP FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
COMING OUT OF A DIURNAL MAXIMUM PERIOD, IT SHOWS NO SIGNS OF
WINDING DOWN IN SATELLITE ANIMATION. THE SYSTEM IS FIXED BASED ON
PGTW AND RCTP FIXES, AND THE INTENSITY IS AVERAGED BETWEEN THE TWO
AGENCY DVORAKS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A BROAD
ANTICYCLONE THAT IS CENTER OVER THE RYUKUS.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 58 KTS AT 261739Z
   CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 261730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 51 KTS AT 261730Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 52 KTS AT 261739Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 48 KTS AT 261900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL FORCE TYPHOON
BUALOI ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS THE VIETNAMESE COAST. IT
WILL RIDE THE RAIL OF A PERFECTLY DEVELOPED MONSOON TROF THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE DONG HOI AREA OF VIETNAM TO JUST NORTH OF THE
MINDORO STRAIT. ANIMATED TOTAL PERCEPTIBLE WATER LOOPS REVEAL
EXCELLENT INFLOW TO THE SYSTEM OVER BOTH SIDES OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION.  THE NEARLY IDEAL ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
RAMP UP ALL THE WAY THROUGH LANDFALL. THERE ARE NO IMPEDIMENTS TO
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TRACK.   

MODEL DISCUSSION: RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) TRIGGERS ARE POPPING
UP, AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS TAKES THE SYSTEM ALL THE WAY TO
100KTS NEAR TAU 36. THE JTWC FORECAST PULLS BACK A LITTLE FROM THAT
DUE TO THE HAFS-A OUTPUT, ONE OF THE HISTORICALLY STRONGEST
PERFORMERS REGARDING INTENSITY FORECAST, BUT THAT DOES NOT CHANGE
THE SLOPE OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST. TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT AN ISSUE
DUE TO THE STRONG AND SIMPLE PATTERN OVER THE REGION. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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