WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 
011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.3N 123.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 192 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 19 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W IS TRACKING OVER THE INLAND SEA AREA OF THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS AND IS QUICKLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, WITH AN INCIPIENT EYE AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE 
BANDING. A 260047Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL 
POSITION AND REVEALS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE 
NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 
AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR RGB IMAGERY SHOWS 
IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH EXPANDING EASTWARD OUTFLOW DESPITE THE 
PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM 
ROMBLON (98536), 59NM WNW OF THE CENTER, INDICATE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY 
WINDS AT 23 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 990MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS 
IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES 
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE FORMATIVE EYE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 63 KTS AT 260000Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 55 KTS AT 260000Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 72 KTS AT 260000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W WILL TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH
TAU 96. TS 26W IS CONSOLIDATING AND IS FORMING A WEAK EYE AS IT TRACKS 
OVER THE WARM, CONDUCIVE INNER SEA AREA. THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY 
SLIGHTLY BEFORE TRACKING OVER MINDORO ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 
AFTER EMERGING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 12, TS 26W WILL QUICKLY 
INTENSIFY TO 80 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WITH LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM EXPECTED BY 
ABOUT TAU 60. TS 26W WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND OVER 
NORTHERN VIETNAM. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM, WHICH CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE, THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE 
JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE 
SUPPORTS THE REINTENSIFICATION PHASE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WITH A 
TIGHT SPREAD IN PEAK INTENSITY VALUES RANGING FROM 75-80 KNOTS.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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