WDPN33 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 
030//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 32.1N 154.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 474 NM NORTH OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH IMPROVED 
CONVECTIVE BANDING AND CORE CONVECTION. A 251645Z TOMS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WEAK BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE 
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH 
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE HEDGED ABOVE 
THE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES BASED ON A RECENT SAR IMAGE. CIMSS 
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES HAVE GENERALLY APPEARED TOO LOW AS COMPARED TO 
AVAILABLE WINDSPEED DATA.   

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE, WITH A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TO THE EAST.  

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 51 KTS AT 251520Z
   CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 251740Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 41 KTS AT 251740Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 45 KTS AT 251604Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 52 KTS AT 251830Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 25W IS EFFECTIVELY TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO
COMPETING SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGES. THEREFORE, THE TRACK MOTION
HAS SLOWED AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU
24. CONSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UPWELL COOLER WATER AND
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. AFTER TAU 24, A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN EAST OF HONSHU, WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD. TS 25W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS 
IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN
TAU 36 AND TAU 48. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM
TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS A MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC LOW, WITH INTENSITY
FORECAST TO REACH 70-75 KNOTS AS IT COMPLETES ETT BY TAU 60 TO TAU
72. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK 
FORECAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC INTENSITY 
FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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