WDPN33 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 32.8N 157.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 543 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI
   SHIMA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 29 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MSI ALSO REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM IS SLOWING QUICKLY, WITH A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. A PARTIAL 241942Z RCM-1 SAR IMAGE INDICATES A VMAX OF 85
KNOTS, WHICH APPEARS TOO HIGH. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS
CLEARLY IMPROVED WITH STRONG WINDS WRAPPING AROUND A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER. A 242330Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-
ORGANIZED AND COMPACT CORE REFLECTING THE RECENT CONSOLIDATION. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND 
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE T4.0 (65 KNOTS) DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM 
PGTW AND RJTD AS WELL AS THE CIMSS D-MINT ESTIMATE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WITH A
DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND A BROAD
STR TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 250110Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 44 KTS AT 250110Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 63 KTS AT 242143Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 53 KTS AT 250100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 25W IS FORECAST TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AND
TURN SHARPLY WESTWARD AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES
NORTHEASTWARD AND THE WESTERN STR BUILDS QUICKLY TO THE NORTH.
ERRATIC TRACK MOTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER UPWELLING WATER AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 36, A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER NORTHERN JAPAN, WHICH WILL WEAKEN
THE STR AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF REINTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY DUE TO IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARMING SST VALUES. NEAR TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TY 25W WILL COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 72 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND ENCOUNTERS
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE JET.    

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE 241800Z
EPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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