WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.2N 129.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 521 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA,
   PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN 
ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE 
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CDO, WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE 
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS). AS INDICATED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR RGB IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM 
IS FIGHTING THE VWS SOMEWHAT WITH SHORT-LIVED UPSHEAR PULSES OF 
OUTFLOW. A 242106Z WSF-M 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM THE KADENA MARK-
4B DEPICTS CURVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH A DEFINED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CORE 
CONVECTION. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER 
THE PAST 24 HOURS AND ALIGNS BETTER WITH THE LOWER DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RCTP. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE 
WSF-M IMAGE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 
ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE MORE REALISTIC T3.5 (55 KNOTS) 
DVORAK ESTIMATES, WHICH ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 242040Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 65 KTS AT 242040Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 54 KTS AT 242308Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 65 KTS AT 242300Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W WILL TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. 
TS 26W WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 24, WITH STEADY WEAKENING AS THE 
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. AFTER EMERGING 
BACK OVER WATER NEAR TAU 42, TS 26W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY 
INTENSIFY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 96. THE SYSTEM WILL TURN MORE 
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
STR, WITH LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM EXPECTED BY ABOUT TAU 108. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM, THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE 
REINTENSIFICATION PHASE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WITH A LARGE
SPREAD IN PEAK INTENSITY VALUES. HAFS-A INDICATES A MORE MODEST
PEAK INTENSITY OF 53 KNOTS AT TAU 72. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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