WDPN33 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 32.3N 157.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 516 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI
SHIMA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 29 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
REANALYSIS OF WINDSPEED DATA (SMAP, SMOS AND SAR IMAGERY) FROM
240600-1200Z INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIKELY REINTENSIFIED TO MINIMUM
TYPHOON (TY) STRENGTH. ADDITIONALLY, A 241020Z ASCAT-C IMAGE
REVEALED A SWATH OF 60 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT
SUGGESTING TYPHOON STRENGTH WINDS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM'S CONVECTIVE 
APPEARANCE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A 
RAGGED, WEAK EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO 
A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
AND WARM SST VALUES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RECENT WINDSPEED DATA CONSISTENT WITH 
THE WEAK EYE FEATURE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WITH A
DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND A BROAD
STR TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.  

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 54 KTS AT 241539Z
   CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 241730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 45 KTS AT 241730Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 46 KTS AT 241810Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 25W IS FORECAST TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AND
TURN SHARPLY WESTWARD AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES
NORTHEASTWARD AND THE WESTERN STR BUILDS QUICKLY TO THE NORTH.
ERRATIC TRACK MOTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER UPWELLING WATER AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 36, A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER NORTHERN JAPAN, WHICH WILL WEAKEN
THE STR AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF REINTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY DUE TO IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARMING SST VALUES. NEAR TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL
COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TY 25W WILL COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 96 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND ENCOUNTERS STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE JET.    

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, DETERMINISTIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. THE 240600Z EPS AND 241200Z GEFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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