WDPN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.2N 113.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 70 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 38 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN OVERALL
WARMING TREND AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES WESTWARD. THE EYE HAS BECOME
MORE OCCLUDED AND LESS CIRCULAR WITH A TEMPERATURE OF +2C. DEEP
CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS OPTIMAL WITH SOME PRESSURE BEING EXERTED ON
THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS, GIVING THE SYSTEM A MORE
OBLONG APPEARANCE. A 232349Z SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
STRONG OUTER EYEWALL STRUCTURE FULLY ENCLOSING A STRONG WESTERN
INNER EYEWALL DURING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, WHICH APPEARS TO
BE INTERRUPTED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN
CHINA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
LOCATION OF THE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS ASSESSED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WARMING TREND SEEN IN ANIMATED EIR
IMAGERY, WHICH CORRESPONDED TO THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND OF FT 5.5 CI 6.0.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 117 KTS AT 240010Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 110 KTS AT 240010Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 112 KTS AT 232350Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 106 KTS AT 240020Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH WHAT HAS
BEEN PREDICTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. TYPHOON 24W WILL REMAIN
ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK DECREASING IN INTENSITY AS IT SCRAPES THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALL ALONG THE
COAST, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DECENT OUTFLOW MECHANISMS STILL
IN PLACE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT THE MOISTURE FIELD WILL
REMAIN LARGELY INTACT AS IT MOVES INLAND, BRINGING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IMPACTS. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES, IT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUFFER FROM LAND INTERACTION. THIS DECLINE WILL CONTINUE UNITL 24W
DISSIPATES OVER LAOS BY TAU 72.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE FORCASTED
TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND
ALIGNED WITH THE PREVIOUS HIGH-CONFIDENCE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. ALL 
MODELS AGREE WITH THE STEEP DECLINE IN INTENSITY AS THE STORM MAKES
LANDFALL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN