WDPN33 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 30.4N 153.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 764 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
WEAKENING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH BANDING MOST PROMINENT OVER THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. A FIELD OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF 25W
REMAINS EVIDENT, AS IS THE INFLUENCE OF SOME ASSOCIATED DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
AGENCY FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SUPPORTED 231200Z POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES, SET CONSERVATIVELY ABOVE THE
GENERALLY LOWER AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING WITH SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE SOUTHWEST INDUCING RECENTLY OBSERVED EASTWARD MOTION

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 55 KTS AT 231557Z
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 231740Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 62 KTS AT 231740Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 46 KTS AT 231509Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 47 KTS AT 231840Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 25W IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A MEANDERING TRACK
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS. INITIALLY, A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND 
TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, A 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL 
TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND AWAY, ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD IN ITS PLACE. 
THIS RIDGING, TO THE NORTH OF 25W, WILL TURN THE SYSTEM WESTWARD 
THROUGH TAU 72. THEREAFTER, A SECOND SHORTWAVE THROUGH DEVELOPING 
WITHIN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DIG EQUATORWARD AND 
BREAK THE STEERING RIDGE, AND 25W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD IN 
THE FLOW BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE 
SOUTHEAST. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED 
PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW 
PATTERN. 25W WILL LIKELY HOLD ITS INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
WITH SUPPORT FROM GENERALLY FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW DESPITE A NEAR-TERM INJECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE 
SOUTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM TURNS BACK TO THE WEST, IT WILL PASS OVER 
ITS OWN COLD WAKE AND THE INTENSITY SHOULD CORRESPONDINGLY DROP. 
HOWEVER, IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION 
DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL ALLOW 25W TO REINTENSIFY AS A 
FORMIDABLE LOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH ALL MODELS DEPICTING THE WESTWARD
TURN AFTER TAU 24. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THE NORTHEASTWARD TURN
AND SUBSEQUENT ACCELERATION AFTER TAU 72 REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND
MODEL SPREAD IS SIGNIFICANT PARTICULARLY IN THE ALONG TRACK
DIRECTION. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS A TOUCH SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS WARNING IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT REMAINS AHEAD OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE AND
BEGINNING TO CATCH UP. NUMERICAL INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO OF A STEADY STATE TO SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE NEAR TO MEDIUM TERM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
REINTENSIFICATION IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. COAMPS-TC DEPICTS A MORE
IMMEDIATE AND ONGOING WEAKENING TREND THAN THE REMAINING GUIDANCE,
WHICH REMAINS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN ANTICIPATED PASSAGE OVER COOLER
WATER AND THE PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR NEARBY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS
JTWC FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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