WDPN32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.1N 114.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 79 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 50 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG 
CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THIS 
HORIZONTALLY MASSIVE AND CIRCULAR SYSTEM TRANSITING PAST HONG KONG, TO 
THE SOUTH. THE TYPHOON IS NOW VIEWABLE ON RADAR, SHOWING CONCENTRIC 
CIRCLES OF CONVECTION AROUND AN EYE. THE EYE IS STILL FULLY APPARENT 
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND THOUGH SLIGHTLY OCCLUDED BY THE OCCASIONAL 
LOW CLOUD, IT MEASURED AT A +9C DURING THE LAST FIX CYCLE. BOTH THE 
SYSTEM AS A WHOLE AND THE EYE ARE GOOD REPRESENTATIONS OF 
AXISYMMETRIC, CONCENTRIC CIRCLES. RADIAL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE 
OBSERVED WITH TRANSVERSE BANDING EXHIBITED PARTICULARLY ON THE EASTERN 
FLANK WHERE THE OUTFLOW IS LEVERAGING THE POLEWARD EDGE OF THE 
TROPICAL EASTERLY JET TO AID IN ITS EXHAUST. A DISTINCT SEPARATION IN 
THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES DELINEATES THE INNER EYEWALL FROM THE OUTER 
EDGES OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF A MOAT 
AND THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS IN PROGRESS. A 231756Z 
AMSR-2 37 GHZ COLOR IMAGE PRESENTS A MUCH STRONGER OUTER EYEWALL AND 
AN ENHANCED INNER WESTERN EYEWALL, WHICH SUPPORTS THE ANALYSIS OF AN 
ERC IN PROGRESS. A WIND SPEED PRODUCT FROM THE SAME AMSR-2 PASS SHOWS 
A PEAK OF 114 KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS 
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY 
DVORAKS, THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND A STEADY INTENSITY 
TREND OBSERVED IN THE ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   DEMS: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 126 KTS AT 231743Z
   CIMSS ADT: 115 KTS AT 231740Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 109 KTS AT 231740Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 125 KTS AT 231743Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 115 KTS AT 231840Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: BEGINNING LAND INTERACTION

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THERE ARE NO SURPRISES WITH THIS FORECAST AS
IT CONTINUES TO ALIGN WELL WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY PREDICTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD STILL BE CONSIDERED
FAVORABLE DUE TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, JUST THE RIGHT AMOUNT OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL SUPPORT,
AND A HEALTHY SYSTEM WITH A ROBUST INTERNAL DYNAMIC, THE MAIN
IMPEDANCE IS THE IMMINENT LAND INTERACTION THAT HAS RECENTLY BEGUN.
THE INTENSITY WILL DECLINE SLIGHTLY BY TAU 12, AFTER WHICH THE
SCALES WILL TIP AND A SHARPER DECELERATION WILL OCCUR. THE STEERING
CONTROL IS SHIFTING FROM A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BONIN HIGH TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE SICHUAN BASIN. THE BATON HANDOFF OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PROVE RELATIVELY SEAMLESS AND IMPERCEPTIBLE WITH BOTH RIDGES
WORKING IN TANDEM TO PUSH IT WESTWARD. THE FORECASTED TRACK WILL
RIDE THE COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN CHINA WHERE TYPHOON RAGASA CAN
MANAGE TO TAP INTO THE FUEL IT NEEDS THROUGH TAU 36. A STEADY
DECLINE WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION. AFTER
TAU 36, IT WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
VIETNAM AND LAOS, WHERE IT WILL EFFECTIVELY DISSIPATE BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PERFORM 
EXCEPTIONALLY WELL IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH TRACK GUIDANCE 
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND A VERY GOOD CONCURRENCE OF
INTENSITY AIDS. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS IN HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGHOUT THE 72-HR FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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