WDPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (BUALOI) 
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 9.5N 133.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 138 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING
CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
PREVIOUSLY EVIDENT IN A 231127Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND EVENLY DISTRIBUTED AROUND THE
CIRCULATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AIDED BY A FAVORABLE FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT THAT INCLUDES ENHANCEMENT OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW TOWARD
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW
AND KNES AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE SCATTEROMETER DATA SUPPORTED
231200Z POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A TIGHT GROUPING OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND
AUTOMATED FIX ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 33 KTS AT 231656Z
   CIMSS ADT: 29 KTS AT 231740Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 29 KTS AT 231740Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 26 KTS AT 231656Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 28 KTS AT 231840Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: NEAR-TERM FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE
INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING TO A
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE CONTINUOUS STEERING INFLUENCE OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. NEAR-TERM RAPID INTENSIFICATION
IS ANTICIPATED AS IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO THE NORTH, AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER INFLUENCE THE
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE AFTER TAU 36 AS THE OUTFLOW SUPPORTING UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD, AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM, AND PERIPHERAL FLOW
AROUND BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH INTRODUCES
NORTHEASTERLY ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THESE FACTORS,
COMBINED WITH PASSAGE OVER LAND, ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 72. REINTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND IMPROVING
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE SYSTEM WHILE IT TRACKS ACROSS
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 IN TERMS OF BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED
OF MOTION. THEREAFTER, SOLUTIONS SPREAD DUE TO DIFFERING
REPRESENTATIONS OF THE STEERING RIDGE ORIENTATION AND INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM. NOTABLY, THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION CARRIES A
WEAKER SYSTEM WESTWARD, AS THE SOUTHERN MOST SOLUTION, TOWARD
EVENTUAL LANDFALL IN VIETNAM. NAVGEM TURNS A STRONGER SYSTEM MORE
SHARPLY POLEWARD TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE 
AS THE NORTHERN MOST SOLUTION. THE REMAINING CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS ARE
MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AND THE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE CONSENSUS AND 
PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK FORECASTS. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, MODELS AGREE ON 
NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING IN THE 36 TO 72 HOUR 
TIME FRAME AND REINTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY 
FORECAST LIES WITHIN THE MODEL GROUPING BUT FAVORS THE HIGH-END, 
NEAR-TERM INTENSITY FORECASTS FROM HAFS AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL 
RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE GIVEN FAVORABLE STORM CENTRIC AND 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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