WDPN32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
 
SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.0N 118.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 125 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 263 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET
 
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS SHOWS SOME
IMPINGEMENT ON THE OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BUT THE CORE
OF TYPHOON RAGASA IS HOLDING ITS OWN AND THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING
INTENSITY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED BASED ON THE PGTW CI
OF T6.5, AIDT AND DPRINT RATINGS OF 123KTS, AND A SATCON ASSESSMENT
OF 129KTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE 20TH LATITUDE AND
TRUCKING ALONG A STEADY BEARING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE EYE IS
SHOWING EARLY SIGNS OF CONSTRICTING, DOWN FROM 25NM AT 18Z TO 19NM
AT ANALYSIS TIME, WITH SOME CLOUDS SETTLING INTO THE CENTER AND
MAKING FOR A PATCHY VIEW TO THE OCEAN SURFACE. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS WARMING OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT WHILE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUTFLOW OVER THE
POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE BEGINNING TO BECOME RESTRICTED.  VIGOROUS
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SYSTEM. TY RAGASA IS
ENTERING AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE WIND SHEAR, BUT SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG TRACK ARE CONSISTENT.
 
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
 
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN RYUKUS AND EXTENDS INTO EASTERN CHINA.
 
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RCTP: T7.0 - 140 KTS
   KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 129 KTS AT 222040Z
   CIMSS ADT: 124 KTS AT 222020Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 118 KTS AT 222020Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 129 KTS AT 230040Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 123 KTS AT 230110Z
 
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
 
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
 
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
 
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON RAGASA WILL VEER A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST AS IT TRACKS STEADILY ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT WILL PASS SEAWARD OF HONG KONG, WHIPPING UP
GALE TO STORM FORCE EASTERLIES AS IT PASSES. THE SLIGHT VEERING OF
THE TRACK WILL TAKE THE STORM ASHORE BEFORE IT REACHES THE LUICHOW
PENINSULA, SLAMMING INTO THE CHINESE COAST AT NEAR 100 KNOTS. ONCE
OVERLAND, THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE FED OCEANIC MOISTURE ON THE
SOUTHERN FLANK AND NOT WEAKEN TO BELOW GALE FORCE UNTIL IT IS WELL
INLAND OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE AND THE
VORTEX WILL BECOME UNTRACKABLE BEFORE IT REACHES THAILAND.
 
MODEL DISCUSSION: BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN
PERFORMING WELL AND REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING GOOD
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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