WDPN32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.6N 119.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 125 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 328 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON RAGASA HAS CLEARED THE WESTERN PASSAGE OF THE LUZON STRAIT
AND BEGAN ITS TERMINAL PHASE. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING AT A
STEADY BEARING AND SPEED OF ADVANCE FOR THE PAST FIVE FIX CYCLES.
THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) AND THE
NEW CLEAR AND SYMMETRIC EYE IS MEASURED AT 25NM. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS RADIAL OUTFLOW BUT ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSTANTIALLY MORE DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STORM. NONETHELESS, THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE
EMERGED UNSCATHED FROM THE ERC AND THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT IS
ALMOST AS FAVORABLE AS ITS CURRENT ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED BASED ON MATCHING DVORAKS FROM THE JMA AND JTWC WITH T6.5
FOR CI, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY ADT AIDT AND DPRINT THAT ARE ALL IN
THE 120 TO 125KT RANGE. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IMPINGING ON THE STORM INTENSITY AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH LANDFALL ARE CONSISTENT IN THE 28 TO 29 C RANGE. THE ONLY
THING THAT WILL STOP THIS STORM IS LAND.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANT RADII
WERE VERIFIED WITH A 221240Z ASCAT PASS. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHERN RYUKUS AND EXTENDS INTO EASTERN CHINA.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RCTP: T7.5 - 155 KTS
   KNES: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   CIMSS SATCON: 130 KTS AT 221801Z
   CIMSS ADT: 117 KTS AT 221730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 118 KTS AT 221730Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 120 KTS AT 221801Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 126 KTS AT 221830Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON RAGASA WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AND STEADILY
AS IT CHUGS ALONG THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA,
SLAMMING HONG KONG WITH GALE TO STORM FORCE EASTERLIES AS IT PASSES
SEAWARD OF THE AREA. THE TRACK WILL TAKE THE STORM ASHORE NEAR THE
TOP OF THE LUICHOW PENINSULA AT OR NEAR TYPHOON STRENGTH, WHERE IT
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE COAST OR JUST INLAND UNTIL IT
TRACKS FULLY OVER LAND IN EXTREME NORTHERN VIETNAM AND DISSIPATES
AS IT TRACKS OVER VIETNAM AND LAOS. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE
REFRESHINGLY TIGHT, EVEN FOR A WEST RUNNING SYSTEM, LENDING GOOD
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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