WDPN32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 
016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.3N 121.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 140 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 285 NM NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 41 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TO STATE THE OBVIOUS: THIS EYE IS HUGE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE 32NM WIDE BANDING EYE
FEATURE TRACKING NORTH OF LUZON. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 24W IS STILL
RECOVERING FROM AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) THAT OCCURRED
EARLIER TODAY, AND THE EYEWALL IS WEAKER WEST OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER AS DEPICTED IN A 210503Z GCOM W-1 AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED MSI AND ANIMATED RADAR LOOP
HIGHLIGHTING THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 140 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T7.5 - 155 KTS
   RJTD: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   RCTP: T7.5 - 155 KTS
   KNES: T7.5 - 155 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 140 KTS AT 220531Z
   CIMSS ADT: 124 KTS AT 220530Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 138 KTS AT 220530Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 146 KTS AT 220505Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 138 KTS AT 220640Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEST 36 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN TAU 48-96, A
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALTER THE COURSE SLIGHTLY TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE
NEAR-TERM, TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION OVER LUZON AND THE ISLANDS NORTH
OF LUZON COUPLED WITH UPWELLING OF COOL WATER WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS STY
24W APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA. THE RATE OF WEAKENING
WILL INCREASE AFTER TRACKING OVER THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA, AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE FOLLOWING FINAL LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF
VIETNAM AT TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT STY 24W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY CURVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXEMPTING THE
OUTLIER OF NAVGEM, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS 112NM BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS
WELL, AND THE HIGH TRACK CONFIDENCE LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: HIGH//
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