WDPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 
013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.9N 125.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 145 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 361 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 38 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SUPER
TYPHOON (STY) 24W TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. A WARM EYE FEATURE IS EVIDENT AND HIGHLIGHTS THE MATURE
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 211208Z METOP-B MHS 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALING A
WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE AND SYMMETRICAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 145 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 211209Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHILE SUPPORTED BY THE
AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   RJTD: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   RCTP: T7.5 - 155 KTS
   KNES: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   DEMS: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   CIMSS SATCON: 141 KTS AT 211003Z
   CIMSS ADT: 143 KTS AT 211130Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 137 KTS AT 211130Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 130 KTS AT 211002Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 138 KTS AT 211130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 72, STY 24W WILL CURVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, TRACKING BRIEFLY OVER THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA.
FOLLOWING TAU 96, STY 24W WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN
VIETNAM COAST. STY 24W WILL STAGNATE INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LUZON AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
THE ISLANDS IN THE LUZON STRAIT. STY 24W WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AT
TAU 24 AND CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COASTAL REGION OF
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION AND UPWELLING ALONG
THE COAST WILL FURTHER WEAKENING UNTIL STY 24W MAKES LANDFALL.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT STY 24W WILL CURVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS 168NM.
SLIGHT DEVIATIONS NORTH OR SOUTH AFFECT THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE,
WHICH HAS A LARGER SPREAD DEPENDING ON WHETHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
ANTICIPATE LANDFALL EARLIER OR LATER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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