WDPN32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.9N 127.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 398 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 37 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE EYE
UNDERWENT CONTRACTION SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, RESULTING IN A
PINHOLE EYE AND A FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE TYPHOON. A 210028Z
GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A STRONG, CLOSED, CIRCULAR
EYEWALL STRUCTURE FULLY SURROUNDED BY A MOAT, INDICATING THE SYSTEM
IS SETTING UP FOR A POTENTIAL ERC. CONTINUED TROCHOIDAL MOTION HAS
BEEN OBSERVED AS THE SYSTEM WOBBLED ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK.
VIGOROUS RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A WIDE BAND OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES
CIRCULATING INTO THE SYSTEM HAVE CONTINUED TO BE OBSERVED IN
ANIMATED MSI. THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS WARNING, NOW MEASURED AT 14C. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE AND VISIBLE
PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE AGENCY
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES, THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT ALL
ESTIMATES HAVE TRENDED UP DURING THIS WARNING CYCLE. WIND RADII
WERE VERIFIED AGAINST A 210102Z ASCAT IMAGE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RCTP: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 126 KTS AT 202251Z
   CIMSS ADT: 122 KTS AT 202030Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 117 KTS AT 202030Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 117 KTS AT 210023Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 125 KTS AT 210110Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: WITH A PINHOLE EYE, A POINT SOURCE ALOFT, WARM
OHC VALUES, AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE ENVIRONMENT
SURROUNDING TYPHOON RAGASA REMAINS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT. A PEAK IS PREDICTED AT TAU 24, AFTER WHICH SOME LAND
INTERACTION WILL INTRODUCE A DEGREE OF DRY AIR INTRUSION AND
INCREASED FRICTION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE STEERING
MECHANISM WILL KEEP THE TYPHOON ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT AT A RELATIVELY CONSTANT SPEED. A
SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WILL OCCUR AT TAU 72 DUE TO A
CHANGE IN STEERING RIDGES. LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120 WILL
BRING ABOUT DISSIPATION OVER LAND AFTER TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE TRACK AIDS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. THE INTENSITY AIDS STILL SHOW A POSSIBILITY FOR
CONTINUED RI, WITH RIPA AND RI25 TRIGGERING, THOUGH THE SYSTEM MAY
BE NEARING ITS PEAK SOON. A SLIGHT TREND UPWARDS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UP UNTIL THE LAND INTERACTION
WITH LUZON BEGINS. INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE
SHORT TERM AND MEDIUM BEYOND TAU 72, BUT THE OVERALL PHILOSOPHY
SUGGESTS A LIMITED REINTENSIFICATION, OR AT LEAST A DECREASE IN THE
WEAKENING, IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE SEA WEST OF LUZON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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