WDPN32 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.8N 127.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 441 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED
EYE OF VARYING SHAPES AND SIZES WITH THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT THE
CIRCULATION CENTER OCCASIONALLY MAKING AN APPEARANCE THROUGH THE
EYE. RADIAL OUTFLOW IS OBSERVED AND ESPECIALLY VIGOROUS IN THE
EQUATORWARD DIRECTION BECAUSE IT HAS TAPPED INTO THE TEJ, WITH
TRANSVERSE BANDING EXHIBITED ON ALL SIDES. A 201726Z AMSR2 BULLSEYE
PASS REVEALED A STRONG, SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD DEPICTING WINDS
TOPPING OUT AT 97 KTS IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL. A WELL-WRAPPED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS THE APPEARANCE OF THE NUMBER SIX ON THE 89
GHZ IMAGE, BUT THE 37 GHZ COLOR IMAGE FROM THE SAME AMSR2 PASS
SHOWS A PINK RING ALONG THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OF THE EYEWALL
WITH WEAKER STRUCTURE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
DESPITE TROCHOIDAL MOTION BEING OBSERVED IN ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY, A
MOAT HAS NOT YET FULLY DEVELOPED AROUND THE EYEWALL. INTENSITY HAS
NOT QUITE LEVELED OFF, BUT CONTINUES TO CLIMB, ALBEIT AT A SLOWING
PACE. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
EYE FEATURE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
USING A BLEND OF THE AGENCY SUBJECTIVE FIXES AND THE OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES. WIND RADII WAS ASSESSED USING PERSISTENCE AND GIVEN A
LOW CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER MORE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY IS SUPPORTIVE
OF THE WIND RADII DEPICTION WHICH BRINGS THE CONFIDENCE UP TO A
MEDIUM.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 114 KTS AT 201659Z
   CIMSS ADT: 117 KTS AT 201730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA IS
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, PRIMARILY DUE TO
THE WARM SST AND HIGH OHC VALUES. THE TYPHOON HAS SUCCEEDED IN
GENERATING STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, WHICH WILL HELP TO PROTECT IT
UNTIL LAND INTERACTION BECOMES A FACTOR AS IT NEARS THE ISLAND OF
LUZON. THREADING THE LUZON STRAIGHT, RAGASA WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN INTENSITY BUT REMAIN ON A VERY SURE WESTWARD TRACK WITH AN
ULTIMATE DESTINATION ACROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN. A HANDOFF WILL
OCCUR FROM ONE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ANOTHER LOCATED OVER
CHINA, WHICH WILL CONTINUE DRIVING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD INTO A
LANDFALL NEAR HANOI. DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT
TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS VERY GOOD AND IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH IS WHY THE JTWC
FORECAST HAS A HIGH CONFIDENCE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS.
THE INTENSITY AIDS ALSO SHARE A GOOD AGREEMENT, AND INDICATE THE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PEAK BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24, THOUGH THE
QUANTITATIVE FORECASTED PEAK ALWAYS CARRIES ADDITIONAL
UNCERTAINTIES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES LATER IN
THE PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH HOW LAND INTERACTION WILL
DECAY THE SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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