WDPN32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.2N 128.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 471 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CYCLICAL EYE FEATURE THAT HAS TIGHTENED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AS
TYPHOON (TY) 24W HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAP INTO THE EYE FEATURE, WHILE CIRRUS FILAMENTS
EXPAND OUTWARDS ON THE UPPER-LEVEL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED EIR AND A
201231Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS PARTIALLY REVEALING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS ASSESSED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES
LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 102 KTS AT 201340Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 103 KTS AT 201340Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 105 KTS AT 201150Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 102 KTS AT 201300Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 24W WILL GRADUALLY CURVE TO A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TY 24W
WILL CURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHWESTERN
CHINA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
ABOVE-AVERAGE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT EAST OF LUZON WILL ALSO PROVIDE
THERMAL SUPPORT TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION, ALLOWING FOR A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 135KTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, TY 25W
WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST OF HONG KONG, MACAO,
CHINA, AND VIETNAM, UPWELLING WILL FURTHER WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES INTO THE SHALLOW GULF OF TONKIN. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TY 24W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
THEN CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TAU 48-72. RAPID INTENSIFICATION
AIDS CONTINUE TO TRIGGER WITHIN THE JTWC SHIPS GUIDANCE WELL ABOVE
THE MESOSCALE AND GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS, WHICH SEEM SOMEWHAT OUT
TO LUNCH. SOMEHOW, HWRF, GFS, AND COAMPS-TC HAVE SUDDENLY
CALCULATED A SWIFT WEAKENING WITHIN THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS WHICH IS
NOT REALISTIC TO THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT. THUS, THE JTWC GUIDANCE
REMAINS ABOVE CONSENSUS CLOSER TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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