WDPN33 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 25.5N 156.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 654 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY)
25W (NEOGURI) WITH PERSISTENT AND BURSTING CONVECTION WRAPPING
AROUND THE NEWLY FORMED RAGGED EYE-FEATURE LOCATED ABOVE THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AROUND THE PERIPHERY,
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WRAPPING NEATLY BENEATH
THE SUPPORTIVE CONVECTION, WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BANDING
DEVELOPING UNIFORMLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. ON ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS, WITH VISIBLE CIRRIFORM STRIATIONS BURSTING
OUTWARD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS HAS
REVEALED A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) REMAINS LOW (10-15 KTS), SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM
(28-29 C), AND SUPPORTIVE OUTFLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
BULLSEYE 192248Z METOP-C WIND DATA IMAGE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 200140Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 75 KTS AT 200140Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 87 KTS AT 200140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 25W IS FORECASTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48, ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR LOCATED
TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND BEGIN A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK UNTIL
TAU 120. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES DURING THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
SYSTEMS POLEWARD RECURVE, AS A COMPETING STR TO THE WEST IS ALSO
FORECASTED TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT WESTWARD, ALLOWING FOR THE SHARP
TURN NORTHEASTWARD. AS THE STR TO THE WEST RETREATS FURTHER
WESTWARD, TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE AFOREMENTIONED POLEWARD
TRACK AND QUICKEN IN ITS SPEED OF APPROACH NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, TY 25W IS
FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY TO 90 KTS DURING THE NORTHWESTWARD APPROACH
TOWARD THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE STEERING STR. NEAR THE STR AXIS,
INTENSITIES WILL CONTINUE INCREASING TO 110 KTS BETWEEN TAU 48 AND
TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A
RAPID INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE
SYSTEM TO 75 KTS BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL PREDICTION GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 60 NM
BEFORE THE SYSTEMS EXPECTED RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST. DURING THIS
PERIOD, JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS ILLUSTRATE A BIFURCATION
SCENARIO, WITH GALWEM, ECMWF, AND UKMET CHARACTERIZING A WESTWARD
TRACK. THE REMAINDER OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOW THE
AFOREMENTIONED RECURVE SCENARIO BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSELY WITH THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
AVAILABLE AI SOLUTIONS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL 72
HOURS, AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY,
THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL
INTENSITY CONSENSUS INTO TAU 48, AND NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY
SOLUTIONS INTO TAU 120, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY 
FORECAST BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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