WDPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.3N 129.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 508 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 31 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY)
24W (RAGASA) WITH AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED STRUCTURE AS FLARING
CONVECTION IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS BEGUN TO WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND THE CENTRAL VORTEX.
CONTINUED AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED WRAPPING FROM
THE NORTHERN QUADRANT INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. NEAR THE CENTER, AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS BEGUN FORMING,
WITH AN EVIDENT DRY SLOT LOCATED DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST. ALOFT,
RADIAL OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED, SUPPORTING THE SYSTEMS QUICK
INTENSIFICATION. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (0-5
KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW- INDICATED BY VISIBLE CIRRIFORM STRIATIONS BURSTING OUTWARD
FROM THE SYSTEMS CENTRAL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 37 GHZ
192111Z WSFM MI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EARLIER 192113Z SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR
WIND DATA IMAGE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 200100Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 69 KTS AT 200100Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 63 KTS AT 192114Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 76 KTS AT 200100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 24W IS FORECASTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH TAU 48, ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE (STR) DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 48, THE TRACK
BECOMES MORE WESTWARD AS A COMPETING EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST BEGINS WEAKENING AND RETREATING WESTWARD. AS THE
EQUATORIAL RIDGE RETREATS OVER MALAYSIA, THE TRACK FOR TY 24W IS
FORECASTED TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT AND
INTO TAU 96 JUST SOUTH OF COASTAL SOUTHERN CHINA. BETWEEN TAU 96
AND TAU 120, THE EXPECTED TRACK BECOMES WESTWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD, JUST
NORTH OF TY 24W. WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY, THE CONTINUED HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECASTED TO SUPPORT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION TO 120 KTS BY TAU 72, WITH FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LOW VWS, AND STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT. FOLLOWING TAU 72,
VWS IS FORECASTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 15 KTS WITH DRY AIR BEGINNING
TO WRAP CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
DURING THIS PERIOD, PERSISTENT LAND INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN
COASTAL CHINA ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF TY 24W WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SURFACE INTENSITIES INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL PREDICTION TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD OF 108 NM AT TAU 72, INCREASING TO 178 NM BY TAU 120.
BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120, ALL JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS ILLUSTRATE
TY 24W TO TRACK WESTWARD, RIGHT ALONG COASTAL SOUTHERN CHINA, NORTH
OF HAINAN. THE JTWC FORECAST IS ALIGNED CLOSELY WITH THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY, THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU
120 AND PLACED JUST HIGHER THAN THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY
CONSENSUS DUE TO THE FORECASTED QUICK INTENSIFICATION INTO TAU 72. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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