WDPN33 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 25.1N 158.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 591 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TYPHOON
(TY) 25W (NEOGURI) WITH BURSTING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE
ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SUPPORTIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING HAS PERSISTED THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLES OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES
HAVE CONTINUED TO LAZILY WRAP BENEATH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, A MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS CONTINUED TO SUPPORT THE SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT
OF TY 25W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS HAS REVEALED THAT THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KTS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C),
AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION OF TY NEOGURI IS
PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED DIRECTLY TO THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 66 KTS AT 191730Z
   CIMSS ADT: 67 KTS AT 192000Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 73 KTS AT 192000Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 68 KTS AT 191737Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 76 KTS AT 192000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 25W IS FORECASTED TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED DIRECTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, TY 25W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR AND BEGIN ITS NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE RECURVE POLEWARD, WITH A
COMPETING STR LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE STR TO THE
WEST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT WESTWARD, TY 25W WILL BEGIN ITS
POLEWARD TRACK AND QUICKEN IN SPEED OF APPROACH UNTIL TAU 120. WITH
REGARD TO INTENSITY, TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO 110 KTS AS
THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE STR (NEAR TAU 72).
AFTER TAU 72 AND DURING THE SYSTEMS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL START DECREASING WHILE VWS INCREASES TO
ABOVE 20 KTS, BEGINNING THE INITIAL DECAYING STAGES TOWARD 75 KTS
BY TAU 120.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL PREDICTION GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 77 NM.
FOLLOWING TAU 48, JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY, ILLUSTRATING A BIFURCATION SCENARIO. GALEM, ECMWF,
AND UKMET CHARACTERIZE A SOUTHWEST TRACK AFTER TAU 48, WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS SHOW A RECURVE SCENARIO BETWEEN
TAU 48 AND TAU 72. AVAILABLE AI MODEL GUIDANCE AND GFS ARE
EXPECTING A CLEAR RECURVE SCENARIO AFTER TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST
IS PLACED CLOSELY WITH THE JTWC CONSENSUS, GFS, AND AI SOLUTIONS,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST UNTIL 72 HOURS, AND MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY, RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECASTED THROUGH THE INITIAL 24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH COAMPS-TC SHOWING A PEAK OF 135 KTS. THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALIGNED CLOSELY TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
THROUGH THE INITIAL STAGES OF THE FORECAST (TAU 0 TO TAU 72), AND
JUST ABOVE CONSENSUS BETWEEN TAU 60 AND TAU 120, LENDING MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE 120 HOUR
PERIOD. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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