WDPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (MITAG) WARNING NR 
012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.3N 115.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 89 NM EAST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND RADAR DEPICTS
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W WITH A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC)
THAT HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), ARE
OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AND INTERACTION WITH
LAND. THE EXTENT OF THIS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CAN BE SEEN ON THE
LESS ACTIVE, WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AVAILABLE RADAR. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 49 KTS AT 182234Z
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 182030Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 182030Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 43 KTS AT 182316Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 44 KTS AT 190020Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: REBUILDING OF THE STR HAS STARTED TO PUSH TS
23W WESTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 6
NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A STRENGTH OF
40KTS THROUGH TAU 12. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AND
INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. WINDS
REMAIN STRONGEST ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. AFTER
LANDFALL, 23W WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN, WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST TO
OCCUR NO LATER THAN TAU 48 OVER SOUTHERN CHINA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH LANDFALL JUST
NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG AND A WESTWARD TRACK AFTER. THE JTWC TRACK IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE HEDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF MOST
CONSENSUS MEMBERS. DRY AIR ENTERING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH RAPID
DISSIPATION AFTER TAU 6. SOME OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETRY
SUGGEST THE STORM IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN EXPECTED. AS SUCH, THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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