WDPN32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (TAPAH)       
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.4N 115.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 245 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AS INDICATED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS ROBUST. ADDITIONALLY, THE NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE IS ABATING, 
WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW EXPANDING GRADUALLY NORTHWARD. CONSEQUENTLY,
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
BUILDING AND SUSTAINING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH
A MORE SYMMETRIC CORE OF CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 061311Z ASCAT-C
BULLSEYE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A DEFINED CENTER WITH 30-35 KNOT WINDS.
THE CENTER IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURSTS, WITH
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -88C. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT-C DATA.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 061130Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 31 KTS AT 061130Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 28 KTS AT 060809Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 28 KTS AT 061150Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY 
IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
INTO A BREAK IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW 
THE SYSTEM TO BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED AND COMMENCE A SHORT PERIOD 
OF NEAR RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) FROM 35 TO 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36. 
DURING THIS PERIOD, TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD 
MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA NEAR TAU 39. AFTER 
TAU 39, TS 22W WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN INLAND WHILE TURNING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AS THE HIGH RE-BUILDS TO THE NORTH. 
DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 72.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH TRACKS THE
SYSTEM MORE POLEWARD, THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT, WITH A 55NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 36. 060600Z ENSEMBLE 
GUIDANCE FROM EPS AND GEFS IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE 
JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG POTENTIAL FOR RI THROUGH TAU 36, WITH RI 
GUIDANCE TRIGGERED. GEFS NOW SHOWS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A 50-64 
KNOT SYSTEM NEAR LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 36, INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 
RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN