WDPN32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) 
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.2N 116.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 278 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AS INDICATED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS ROBUST. HOWEVER, NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE IS EVIDENT, WITH A
TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL
DEEP CONVECTION. CONSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERTICALLY ALIGNED
AND THE DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD LINES WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST UNDER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 060503Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED LLCC POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF A CLUSTER OF
INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURSTS, WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR -83C.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE AND AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
PARTIAL 060108Z ASCAT-B UHR IMAGE SHOWING 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREMENT WITH THE AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25-30 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY 
IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH DECREASING NORTHEASTERLY 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A BREAK IN THE 
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BECOME 
VERTICALLY ALIGNED AND COMMENCE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION (RI) FROM 35 TO 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36-42. DURING THIS RI 
PERIOD, TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD MAKING 
LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA NEAR TAU 45. AFTER TAU 48, 
TD 22W WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN INLAND WHILE TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS 
THE HIGH RE-BUILDS TO THE NORTH. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 72.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH TRACKS THE 
SYSTEM INTO THE STR AND DIRECTLY OVER HONG KONG, THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH A 60NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 
48. 060000Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM EPS AND GEFS IS ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG POTENTIAL FOR RI THROUGH
TAU 36, WITH RI GUIDANCE TRIGGERED. AFTER TAU 36, INTENSITY GUIDANCE 
SUPPORTS RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.     

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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