WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (KAJIKI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.2N 107.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 146 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A TIGHTLY
WRAPPED CLOUD-FILLED BANDING EYE FEATURE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF TYPHOON (TY) 19W. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS THE WARMING
CLOUD TEMPERATURES WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF THE START OF A WEAKENING
PHASE. OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, TY 19W HAS STARTED AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE, WHICH HAS NOT YET COMPLETED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 252308Z WSFM MWI
89GHZ IMAGE REVEALING THE BROKEN UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE AND THE
MOAT SEPARATING THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY EYE. THE SYSTEM IS
VERTICALLY STACKED, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE EVIDENT ON A
37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 92 KTS AT 242030Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 19W WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS WHILE UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH. DURING THIS TIME, TY 19W WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
EAST COAST OF VIETNAM. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF TONKIN DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT UPWELLING OF COOL WATER. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLY LOW AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLY DIVERGENT. ONCE TY 19W MAKES LANDFALL, TOPOGRAPHIC
INTERACTION WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT TY 19W WILL TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 36 IS 52NM. 
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT AS WELL
FORECASTING RAPID WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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