WDPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (KAJIKI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.1N 108.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 126 NM NORTH OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 31 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WARMING
CLOUDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TYPHOON (TY) 19W, HINTING AT
AN APPROACHING WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
CONTINENTAL SHELF OF THE GULF OF TONKIN WHERE THERE IS LESS OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 241726Z 34GHZ IMAGE REVEALING A DISTINCT MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE AND BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED
BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 91 KTS AT 241757Z
   CIMSS ADT: 92 KTS AT 241730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 19W WILL TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, MAKING LANDFALL
BETWEEN TAU 12-24. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT. WHILE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM, UPWELLING
WILL COOL THE OCEAN SURFACE, INITIATING A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION AFTER LANDFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TY 19W. WEAKENING WILL INCREASE TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 36 AFTER THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER HIGH ANNAMITE MOUNTAIN
RANGE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT TY 19W WILL TRACK WESTWARD OVER LAND DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT LANDFALL IS APPROXIMATELY 20NM.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TY 19W WILL
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE RAPIDLY WEAKENING
OVER LAND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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