WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (KAJIKI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.9N 109.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 128 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 36 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON (TY) 19W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 40 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS, FROM 55 KNOTS AT 231200Z TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR 
IMAGERY DEPICT A COMPACT CORE SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAINAN 
ISLAND, LARGELY UNSCATHED WITH A 15NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL 
POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 241124Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION, WITH A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE SYSTEM HAS 
MAINTAINED RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUPPORTING THE 
CURRENT PHASE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE T5.0 TO 
T5.5 SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES HAVE COME 
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND NOW RANGE FROM 86 TO 98 KNOTS. 

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   DEMS: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 98 KTS AT 241054Z
   CIMSS ADT: 92 KTS AT 241200Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 86 KTS AT 241200Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 97 KTS AT 241124Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 92 KTS AT 241200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 19W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED NEAR TAU 18.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU
12 THEN WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF VIETNAM.
AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION
OF NORTHERN LAOS, WITH RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 48.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, WITH A 35NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24. THE 240600Z
GEFS AND 240000Z ECENS ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE (INCLUDING COAMPS-TC (GFS) AND HAFS-A) INDICATES
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95-105 KNOTS AT TAU 12, SUPPORTED BY TRIGGERED
RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE. AFTER TAU 12, THERE IS STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARD
THE COAST OF VIETNAM.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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