WDPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (KAJIKI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.4N 110.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 142 NM NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 31 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON (TY) 19W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 40 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, FROM 50 KNOTS AT 230600Z TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND ANIMATED RADAR 
IMAGERY DEPICT A COMPACT CORE SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAINAN 
ISLAND, WITH A 23NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH 
HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 240533Z AMSR2 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE 
IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST DAY, WITH 
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUPPORTING THE CURRENT 
PHASE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 
90 KNOTS, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE T5.0 TO T5.5 SUBJECTIVE 
DVORAK ESTIMATES. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 64 TO 102 
KNOTS WHILE A 240533Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED IMAGE INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS 
OF 104 KNOTS. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY VALUE, WHICH COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 86 KTS AT 240552Z
   CIMSS ADT: 65 KTS AT 240530Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 64 KTS AT 240530Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 100 KTS AT 240552Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 102 KTS AT 240600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 19W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED NEAR TAU 24. THE 
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 12 THEN 
WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF VIETNAM. AFTER 
LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION
OF NORTHERN LAOS, WITH RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 48.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, 
WITH A 40NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24. THE 240000Z GEFS AND 
231800Z ECENS ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SUPPORTING THE 
JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE 
(INCLUDING COAMPS-TC (GFS) AND HAFS-A) INDICATES A PEAK INTENSITY OF 
100-110 KNOTS AT TAU 12, SUPPORTED BY TRIGGERED RAPID INTENSIFICATION 
GUIDANCE. AFTER TAU 12, THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM 
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE COAST OF VIETNAM.   

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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