WDPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (KAJIKI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.2N 111.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 176 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 31 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAGGED
BANDING EYE INDICATIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM TO TYPHOON
(TY) STRENGTH OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL
DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A TIGHTLY
WRAPPED EYE FEATURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST ENCOURAGING SOUTHWESTWARD DIFFLUENT FLOW.
HOWEVER, THE OUTFLOW BUILDS AGAINST THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALLOWING
FOR A STRONG RADIAL EXHAUST MECHANISM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED RADAR
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 232030Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 19W WILL TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. LANDFALL WILL OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 24-36 ON THE EAST COAST OF
VIETNAM. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE HIGH, AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS DIFFLUENT IN THE
SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. TY 19W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TO A PEAK OF 80KTS BY TAU 24, JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
ONCE THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER LAND TY 19W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TY 19W WILL TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS 40NM AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS LARGELY SPREAD FROM PEAKS OF 70-105KTS. RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) GUIDANCE IS STILL TRIGGERING, POSSIBLY INDICATING
MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
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