WDPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (KAJIKI) WARNING NR 
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.2N 112.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 236 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 29 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLICAL
DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. RADAR
IMAGERY REVEALS A LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE AND SYMMETRIC CLOUD BANDS.
RADIAL OUTFLOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING TROPICAL
STORM (TS) 19W PUSHING BACK AGAINST THE NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED RADAR COMBINED WITH THE OBSCURED 
EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 65 KTS AT 231816Z
   CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 231730Z 
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 19W WILL BE DRIVEN WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. LANDFALL
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 24-36 ON THE EAST COAST OF VIETNAM. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE TS
19W REMAINS OVER WARM WATER WITH 29-30C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW BETWEEN 10-15KTS FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY DIFFLUENCE WILL
ALLOW AN EXHAUST MECHANISM TO THE SOUTHWEST. TS 19W IS ANTICIPATED
TO PEAK AT 70KTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS THE STORM APPROACHES
THE GULF OF TONKIN AT TAU 24, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DECREASE AND
INTENSIFICATION WILL STAGNATE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ONCE TS 19W MAKE
LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO DISSIPATION BY TAU
72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TS 19W WILL TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BY LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 24-36, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS
25NM. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS A LARGER SPREAD BETWEEN 65-100KTS.
RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) GUIDANCE IS STILL TRIGGERING, INDICATING
POSSIBLY MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, HAFS-A PARENT
GUIDANCE REVEALS SIGNIFICANT UPWELLING AT TAU 24, AND AS A RESULT, 
THE FORECAST LEANS AWAY FROM FURTHER RI. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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