WDPN32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (LINGLING) 
WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 31.8N 131.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 116 NM SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: OVER LAND

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION
STRONGLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 211916Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS DEFINED LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER FROM THE EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (30-35 KTS)
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, TERRAIN INTERACTION, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
FULLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM MIYAZAKI AIRPORT AT 1500Z REPORTED 27KTS FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FURTHER SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 41 KTS AT 211810Z
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 211810Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 211810Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 33 KTS AT 211709Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 30 KTS AT 211810Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30-35 KTS
   SST: OVER LAND
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: TERRAIN INTERACTION AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM
THE NORTH.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 18W IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A BUILDING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER KOREA IS BRINGING ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE VORTEX. VERY STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AS IS
TRAVELS SOUTH OF SHIKOKU. AS A RESULT, DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR NEAR TAU 24.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON AN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL
MODELS DEPICTING WEAKENING FROM TAU 0 ONWARD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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