WDPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (LINGLING) 
WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 31.6N 130.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 109 NM SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W IS ASSESSED TO HAVE MADE LANDFALL
ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF KYUSHU AT APPROXIMATELY 210730Z.
ANIMATED RADAR DATA AS WELL AS ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING
QUICKLY INLAND AND PASSING VERY NEAR KAGOSHIMA AIRPORT AROUND
210830Z. THE MAXIMUM WIND REPORTED AT KAGOSHIMA WAS 40 KNOTS
10-MIN, WHICH SUPPORTS THE 0600Z INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE LATEST RADAR DATA FROM JMA AS WELL AS
REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS LOCATED NORTH OF KANOYA AND SOUTHEAST OF KIRISHIMA, 
BUT CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO THE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
LOWER-LEVEL STRUCTURE AND THE OBSCURED NATURE OF THE LLCC IN THE
EIR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE 1200Z SOUNDINGS FROM
KAGOSHIMA AND FUKUOKA CONFIRM THAT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT
200MB IS ALREADY SLAMMING INTO THE SYSTEM AND QUICKLY SHEARING IT
APART. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
HEDGED TOWARDS THE RJTD OVER LAND FIX INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE RAPIDLY TRENDING TOWARDS UNFAVORABLE, WITH SHEAR
ALREADY REACHING HIGH LEVELS AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR BEGINNING TO
SHOW UP ON THE KAGOSHIMA AND FUKUOKA SOUNDINGS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS D-MINT: 34 KTS AT 210928Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 38 KTS AT 211200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: OVER LAND
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER LAND. 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRUNCATED TO 36
HOURS. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: AFTER MAKING LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY FOUR HOURS
AGO, TD 18W HAS QUICKLY MOVED INLAND, PASSED CLOSE ABOARD OF
KAGOSHIMA, AND CROSSED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF KAGOSHIMA BAY. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD, SKIRTING THE
NORTHERN COAST OF SHIBUSHI BAY BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD AND MOVING
BACK OVER WATER OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF KYUSHU WITHIN THE
NEXT SIX TO EIGHT HOURS. TD 18W HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
HAS TRACKED ACROSS SOUTHERN KYUSHU OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. AFTER
MAKING LANDFALL AT 45 KNOTS, THE INTENSITY IS ALREADY ASSESSED TO
BE DOWN TO 30 KNOTS, WITH A 211205Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWING A SMALL
PATCH OF 25 KNOT WINDS OVER WATER OFF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF KYUSHU.
THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY FEELING THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND ALL GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY AND
CONTINUE INCREASING, UP TO NEARLY 50 KNOTS. ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG
PULSE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, THE INCREASED SHEAR WILL TEAR TD 18W
APART, LEAVING A NAKED VORTEX BEHIND TO SLOWLY SPIN DOWN AS IT
TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF SHIKOKU
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS SAVE THE JGSM,
CONFINED IN VERY TIGHT ENVELOPE JUST 25NM WIDE. THE JGSM IS THE
SOLE MODEL TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO SHIKOKU WITHIN THE 36
HOUR FORECAST WINDOW. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED NEAR THE
CONSENSUS MEAN, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
SIMILARLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THOUGH THE HWRF SHOWS A BRIEF
REINTENSIFICATION UP 35 KNOTS AT TAU 12 AND THE COAMPS-TC (BOTH GFS
AND NAVGEM) SHOW A FASTER DISSIPATION, WITH THE SYSTEM WEAKENING
BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN AND THE DECAY-SHIPS OUTPUT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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