WDPN32 PGTW 112100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (PODUL) WARNING NR 020// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.6N 129.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 363 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 14 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TYPHOON 16W (PODUL) WITH AN IMPROVED APPEARANCE CHARACTERIZED BY THE FORMATION OF A RAGGED EYE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO TIGHTLY WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE VORTEX, BUT A SMALL SLOT OF DRY AIR IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CENTER. AN 111636Z AMSR2 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED AND SYMMETRIC MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE LOWER-LEVELS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 16W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE MENTIONED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 37 GHZ AMSR2 IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LISTED AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM 111209Z METOP-C ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 61 KTS AT 111800Z CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 111800Z CIMSS AIDT: 44 KTS AT 111800Z CIMSS D-MINT: 59 KTS AT 111659Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 62 KTS AT 111800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: SLIGHT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: 16W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INITIAL LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR JUST BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36 ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN. THEN A SECOND AND FINAL LANDFALL IS EXPECTED NEAR TAU 48, ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF CHINA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC STORM MOTION AS 16W APPROACHES TAIWAN DUE TO INDUCED VORTICITY CAUSED BY INTERACTION WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE (CMR). REGARDING INTENSITY, 16W IS FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 TO A PEAK OF AROUND 85 KTS DUE TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL FIELDS DEPICT THE CORE OF THE VORTEX MOISTENING, WHICH WILL FURTHER AID IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. LAND INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF TAIWAN WILL CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO ENSUE AS THE VORTEX APPROACHES EASTERN CHINA. AFTER THE SECOND LANDFALL EVENT, 16W WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE OVER LAND WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED NEAR TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 70 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48 AND INSIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK SPREAD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS TRIGGERING THIS CYCLE. AT TAU 24 THERE IS A 35 KNOT SPREAD IN GUIDANCE (65-100 KTS) WITH GFS BEING THE WEAKEST WHILE CTR1 IS THE STRONGEST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED ABOUT 5 KTS HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24 AND THEN FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE CONSENSUS THEREAFTER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN