WDPN33 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (CO-MAY) 
WARNING 
NR 015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.9N 126.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 64 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING OVER AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS COLLAPSING DEEP CONVECTION,
INDICATING A DEGRADING SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 251151Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALING
THE STRUCTURE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
SCATTEROMETRY REVEALING 25KT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAKLY STEERED ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 260830Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W WILL CONTINUE
WEAKLY TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEGRADE WHILE
BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO FURTHER DISSIPATION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BY CREATING AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO VARYING DEGREES. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS
150NM BY TAU 24, AS THE VORTEX TRACKERS SEEM TO STRUGGLE FOLLOWING
THE SYSTEM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOLLOWS
SUIT, RESULTING IN VARYING GUIDANCE SHOWING BOTH INTENSIFICATION
AND WEAKENING. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
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