WDPN33 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (CO-MAY) WARNING 
NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.3N 126.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 71 NM WEST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. DEEP CONVECTION IS BUILDING ON THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
STEERED ALONG THE ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION (TD) 11W HAS BECOME ELONGATED ON A WEST-EAST AXIS OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS AND IS BECOMING FURTHER DISORGANIZED. THE
MUDDLED STRUCTURE IS IDENTIFIABLE ON A 260428Z GCOM W-1 AMSR2 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE, REVEALING THE SHALLOW BANDING TO THE SOUTH AND THE
POINTED CURVE ON THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
EXPOSED LLCC ON ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF
21 KTS ON KUMEJIMA AT 10-MINUTE INTERVALS ALONGSIDE THE AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 40 KTS AT 260458Z
   CIMSS ADT: 27 KTS AT 260530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 11W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW INCREASES THE TRACK SPEED OF
THE SHALLOW SYSTEM AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH. UNFAVORABLY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
THE STRUCTURE OF TD 11W AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH WILL ADDITIONALLY CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT TO
BECOME CONVERGENT. TD 11W WILL DISSIPATE TO 20KTS BY TAU 24 INTO
THE LARGE-SCALE MONSOONAL FLOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TD 11W WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CROSS-TRACK ERROR BY TAU 24 IS 100NM WITH NAVGEM SIGNIFICANTLY WEST
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND GALWEM LYING SIGNIFICANTLY EAST.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH A SPLIT BETWEEN
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO 40KTS WITHIN 24 HOURS (HAFS-A) AND
WEAKENING IN THE EARLY-TERM (GFS). THE INTENSIFICATION MAY BE
UNBALANCED BEYOND THE 24 HOUR FORECAST AS THE TRACKERS PICK UP ON
THE INTENSITY OF THE ENHANCED FLOW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN