WDPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING 
NR 
010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.0N 127.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 44 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOSTLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (FRANCISCO), SITUATED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD MONSOON GYRE. THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE GYRE IS ORIENTED 
GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CHINA, WITH THE 
PRIMARY CYCLONIC CENTER LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF TAIWAN. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS DETERMINED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION 
FROM A 240915Z WSFM MWI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASINGLY 
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL BANDING. ANIMATED SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS 
INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS NORTH OF THE LLCC, WHILE THE 
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION CAN BE ALSO IDENTIFIED 
UTILIZING A 241232Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
ESTIMATED AT 35 KTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY THE 
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS SHOWING A BAND OF 35 KT WINDS WITHIN 90-110 
NM TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 
MULTIPLE AGENCIES, AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
LISTED BELOW WERE ALSO USED TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR MAINTENANCE 
OF INTENSITY, CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, THESE POSITIVE 
FACTORS ARE BEING OFFSET BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY 
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE CORE AND MODERATE (10-15 
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD MONSOON GYRE, STEERED ALONG THE
TIGHT GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE GYRE CENTER AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 241130Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 241130Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 30 KTS AT 241006Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 30 KTS AT 241230Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ENTRAINING THE SYSTEM AND BROAD
NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION, INCLUDING HIGH RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS
(RMW)

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 10W HAS MADE A NORTHWESTWARD TURN AND
CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE, WITH TRANSLATION SPEED CURRENTLY ASSESSED
AT 13 KTS, AS IT RESPONDS TO STEERING FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC MONSOON
GYRE IT IS EMBEDDED IN. THE GALE-FORCE WIND FIELD OF THE SYSTEM
EXTENDS OUT TO APPROXIMATELY 200 NM, PRIMARILY THROUGHOUT THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) REMAINS 
AT 135 NM. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, INTERACTION WITH AN INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, INCLUDING DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR
INTRUSION AND INCREASING VWS, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STEADY WEAKENING 
TREND, LEADING TO AN EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS 
ANTICIPATED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DEFORMED, LOSING DEEP CONVECTIVE 
ORGANIZATION AS CORE VORTICITY DISSIPATES. SUBSEQUENTLY, TS 10W WILL 
BE FULLY ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER-SCALE MONSOON GYRE CIRCULATION. 
DURING THIS TRANSITION, STRONGER GRADIENT-INDUCED WINDS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE GYRE (25-30 KTS) MAY PERSIST, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE 
SOUTHEASTERN CHINA COAST AND EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE GYRE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIR CONSENSUS 
THROUGH TAU 24, WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN TRACK SPREAD THEREAFTER - 
FROM 65 NM AT TAU 12 TO 160 NM AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. ALL MODEL 
SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A WEST OR NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY, THOUGH SOME 
BEGIN TO LOSE TRACK OF THE VORTEX CORE BY TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES 
EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER GYRE. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED 
NEAR, BUT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF, THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN. INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE 
INDICATING WEAKENING TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND CONTINUING 
THROUGH TAU 36. HAFS IS THE ONLY MODEL RIGHT NOW THAT INDICATES 
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR (5 KTS) INITIAL INTENSIFICATION. JTWC OVERALL 
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS MOST MODELS 
INDICATE CIRCULATION DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 36.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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