WDPN32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING 
NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 24.9N 127.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 96 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A NEARLY
FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TROPICAL STORM
(TS) 10W (FRANCISCO) LOCATED WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LARGE-SCALE, MONSOON GYRE CIRCULATION. THE GYRE AXIS IS ORIENTED
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINE OF CHINA, WITH THE
CENTRAL POINT OF ROTATION LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TAIWAN.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
ANALYSIS OF VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTING RECENT, SHORT-LIVED BURSTS OF
CONVECTION, JUST NORTH OF THE CLEARLY IDENTIFIABLE LLCC. LOW-LEVEL 
CONVECTIVE BANDING IS PRETTY WELL ORGANIZED, YET STARTING TO STRETCH 
AND ELONGATE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 240439Z GCOMW1 AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS, AS WELL AS 
THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. 
ADDITIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS, WITH 
WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY DRY DEEP-LAYER AIR WITHIN THE CORE OF
THE VORTEX AND MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 240439Z GCOMW1 AMSR2 DATA AND 240333Z
OCEANSAT-3 SCATTEROMETER PASS

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD MONSOON GYRE, STEERED ALONG THE
TIGHT GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE GYRE CENTER AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 41 KTS AT 240508Z
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 240530Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 240530Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 30 KTS AT 240441Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 30 KTS AT 240630Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION, INCLUDING HIGH
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW)

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 10W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TURNING
NORTHWESTWARD, DRIVEN BY THE STR TO THE NORTH AND AS A RESULT OF
THE SYSTEM REACHING THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MONSOON
GYRE FLOW. WHILE DOING SO, ITS GALE FORCE WIND FIELD WILL STILL
IMPACT LOCATIONS AS FAR AS 200 NM, PARTICULARLY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHEAST, WITH A SMALLER (60-70 NM) WIND RADII TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. RADIUS OF MAX WINDS IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT 
135 NM. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TS 10W WILL BE INFLUENCED BY LESS 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH INCREASING DRY AIR ENTERING THE VORTEX. BY 
THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST (AROUND TAU 36) AND AS THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM OPENS UP AND FURTHER ELONGATES, WITH ITS CORE VORTICITY 
WEAKENING, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER MONSOON 
GYRE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME, ELEVATED (25-30 KTS) WINDS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE GYRE, WILL STILL BE OBSERVED ALONG THE COASTLINE, AND 
EXTENDING EASTWARD AS FAR AS 600 NM, SOUTH OF KYUSHU, JAPAN.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
ENVELOPE OPENING UP TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD - FROM 35
NM AT TAU 12 TO 125 NM AT TAU 36. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, HOWEVER SOME MODELS LOSE THE TRACK OF THE 
INDIVIDUAL VORTEX PRIOR TO TAU 36. JTWC TRACK IS LAID CLOSE, BUT 
SLIGHTLY ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE 
ENVELOPE. IN REGARD TO THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, JTWC FORECAST IS 
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ALL AVAILABLE CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREE 
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, 
DROPPING BELOW 30 KTS AT TAU 36.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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