WDPN33 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.9N 118.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 235 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W IS LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA WHICH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN
AND STRENGTHEN INTO A MONSOON DEPRESSION AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS
A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TROPICAL STORM (TS) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING BUILDING AND WRAPPING INTO THE OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. AN EARLIER 231018Z F-16 SSMIS 91HBT IMAGE
REVEALS THE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEEP CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OF 11W WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED EIR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXED LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAKLY STEERED ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS
INFLUENCED BY THE LARGE-SCALE MONSOONAL FLOW.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 231130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 11W WILL CURVE IN A CYCLONIC DIRECTION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IN A COMPLEX AND WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN THE ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE-SCALE
LOW TO THE NORTH AND WEAK RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 24, PASSING OVER NORTHERN LUZON AT
TAU 36, AND CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WEAKENING WILL
OCCUR AFTER THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF NORTHERN
LUZON, AND BEGIN DISSIPATING INTO THE LARGER MONSOONAL FLOW FROM
TAU 36-48.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE EARLY-TERM FORECAST, RESULTING IN A
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 70NM BY TAU 36. THE SPREAD INCREASES AFTER
TAU 36 SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO DIFFICULTY IN TRACKING THE SYSTEM IN
THE LATER-TERM VORTICITY FIELDS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF CONTINUOUS WEAKENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
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