WDPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (FRANCISCO) WARNING 
NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.0N 129.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 282 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA, WHICH IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN INTO A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH
EXPANSIVE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION
BUILDING OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 231202Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE REVEALING THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF CIRCULATION SYSTEM WITH 35-40KT WIND SPEEDS. A LATER
231253Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE CAPTURED THE WEAKER WESTERN PERIPHERY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EIR AND SCATTEROMETRY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
SCATTEROMETRY AND THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC MONSOONAL FLOW.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 231130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 10W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN
TAU 12-48, TS 10W WILL ROUND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE-SCALE MONSOONAL FLOW, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO A MONSOON DEPRESSION AS TS 10W DISSIPATES BY TAU 48.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PEAK OF 45KTS. AFTER TAU 12, VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE UNFAVORABLY, INITIATING
WEAKENING. THE RATE OF WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST, CAUSING DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND A DEGRADATION OF THE STRUCTURE OF TS 10W. TS 10W
WILL BEGIN DISSIPATION INTO THE MONSOONAL FLOW AT TAU 36 AS THE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMES BROAD
AND THE MONSOONAL FLOW WRAPS INTO A DEVELOPING MONSOON DEPRESSION. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
TS 10W IS COMPLEX, RESULTING IN LOW TRACK CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK. THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TS 10W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING
INTO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. THE JTWC REFLECTS THE VORTICITY MAXIMA
IDENTIFIED ON THE 850 MB VORTICITY FIELDS OF GFS, ECMWF, AND
EC-AIFS. THUS, THE JTWC TRACK LIES NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS CLOSELY TIED TO THE INFLUENCE
OF THE TRACK MODEL SOLUTIONS AND RESULT IN VARYING SPEED AND
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
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